Yolo County Redistricting - 2011 > Rexroad.com

Over the past six to eight months I have heard a great deal about redistricting from political insiders in Yolo County. There seems to be this feeling that since West Sacramento has grown so quickly that it will have two Supervisors in 2011 and Davis will end up with one. That is extremely unlikely.

Let's just assume the following things will be true in 2011. I am using round numbers to make this example easy to follow.

Total population of Yolo County in 2010 ~ 200,000
Each Supervisor District will be ~ 40,000
Davis population ~ 65,000
Woodland population ~55,000
West Sacramento population ~45,000
Winters and Unincorporated area ~35,000

So who is likely to be on the Board of Supervisors in 2011?

District 1 - McGowan is likely if he runs for another term in 2008
District 2 - Yamada's replacement in the 2008 election
District 3 - Rexroad or his replacement in 2010 election
District 4 - Thomson's replacement in the 2010 election
District 5 - Chamberlain is likely since he is running for re-election in 2008

Would it be possible to do what the people from Davis fear and draw a districts that make it unlikely that the people from Davis have two Supervisors? Yes. Is it probable. Not even close.

Redistricting needs to pass with three votes of the Board of Supervisors so three members would have to work overtime to attack Davis at line drawing time.

Here is one possibility. I call it the "Davis Feast or Famine Model"

District 1 - 20,000 people from West Sac, 10,000 from Woodland, 10,000 from Davis
District 2 - 40,000 people in Davis
District 3 - 25,000 people from Woodland, 5,000 from Davis, 10,000 from unincorporated
District 4 - 5,000 people from Davis, 25,000 from West Sacramento, 10,000 from unincorporated
District 5 - 5,000 people from Davis, 20,000 people from Woodland, 15,000 from unincorporated

Davis would get one seat for sure (District 2) and is likely to only have that one seat. If we assume that people vote geographically then the 4th District would go to West Sacramento. Then we get what Davis fears. However, it is also possible under this plan that the quality of the political candidates from Davis is so great that they actually elect Supervisor in all five districts. Joy.

While possible - this plan is unlikely to get three votes.

Here is what is more politically likely to happen:

District 1 - 40,000 people from West Sacramento
District 2 - 35,000 people from Davis, 5,000 from West Sacramento
District 3 - 35,000 people from Woodland, 5,000 unincorporated
District 4 - 30,000 people from Davis, 10,000 unincorporated
District 5 - 20,000 people from Woodland, 20,000 unincorporated

The five Supervisors agree on the lines and they all vote for it.

Is it possible that West Sacramento picks up a Supervisor at the expense of Davis. Yes. Will it happen in 2011? Unlikely. Will it happen in the next several decades with current growth policies. Yes.

What is far more likely is that the 5th District that has always been represented by someone from the unincorporated area of Yolo County ends up being represented by someone that lives in Woodland. That could happen in 2012 when Chamberlain is likely to leave the Board.

That is my crystal ball view for 2011.

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